Weekend Boxoffice #14 (In Retrospect)

I missed making my predictions last week because of all the other stuff going on, though I doubt they would have been very accurate: who could have guessed that "Stomp The Yard" would make $26 million in its first four days, particularly given the largely-unenthusiastic reviews that it got?

Still, looking at the box office in retrospect is important, because let's face it: how movies are performing drives the kind of scripts that sell, and for us aspiring screenwriters (you know who you are) it's all about what genres are hot, and what no one will buy in a million years.

For me, there's the added element that, as a reader, I can guess what I'll be seeing more of in the future. I think everyone is currently dusting off any old urban dance screenplays that they have.

Other things the current box office tells us:

FOR CERTAIN GENRES, HIGH CONCEPT IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN REVIEWS. If you are going to make a serious drama, you better get the critics behind you, but for movies like "Stomp the Yard" and "Night at the Museum", critical plaudits haven't been necessary. "Night at the Museum" made another $21.5 million over the four-day weekend, and has made a remarkable $190 million in 5 weeks, especially considering that its stars Ben Stiller and Robin Williams aren't sure box office draws.

SOMETIMES, EVEN GOOD REVIEWS DON'T HELP. The most surprising underperformer is "Children of Men", which is supposed to be great (I haven't see it; I am pitifully far behind), but which did a relatively-disappointing $7 million or so for the 4-day weekend, dropping off more from the previous week than the other big movies did. "Children of Men" cost $76 million, and has only made $22 million so far, while the Golden Globes ignored it completely. Unless it gets some surprising Oscar nominations, it could fade away, which is unfortunate; these are the kind of movies that one wishes did really well, to encourage studios to bankroll intelligent action-thrillers.

THERE'S STILL ROOM FOR UPBEAT, WELL-MEANING MOVIES. Perhaps as the reaction to our uncertain times, movies like "The Pursuit of Happyness" and "Freedom Writers" are doing well; "Freedom Writers even made more money than "Children of Men" this weekend, after trailing it last weekend. People apparently want earnest stories of hope, especially when the buzz on them is pretty good. That may also explain why "Stomp The Yard" made almost 4 times as much as "Alpha Dog" did.

GOOD MUSICALS WILL MAKE MONEY. Just because no one wanted to see the mediocre "Rent" didn't mean that the musical is dead. "Dreamgirls" has already made $67 million, and it's likely to keep performing well for a while, particularly in the wake of its Golden Globe wins.

ANIMATION IS NO LONGER A SURE THING.... "Arthur and the Invisibles", which cost $86 million, made only $5.8 million in its first 4 days. I don't know if kids were aware of (or cared about seeing) this movie, but they certainly weren't advertising it during anything I was watching.

... BUT HORROR MOVIES PRETTY MUCH ARE. "Primeval" made $7 million in its first 4 days, even though I still have no idea if the killer is a man, an animal, some sort of supernatural entity, or a combination of all three.

SOME BIGGER SERIOUS MOVIES WITH NAME CASTS ARE TAKING A BEATING. "Blood Diamond" cost $100 million, and has only done $48 million in North America, though it may do well worldwide. "The Good Shepherd" has only made $54 million. "Babel", for all its plaudits, has only made $21 million. "The Good German" is completely taking; it has made less than a million dollars, and took only $73,000 from its 23 theaters last weekend. "Bobby" has only made $11 million.

GOOD SMALL MOVIES ARE BUILDING WELL.... "Pan's Labyrinth" made $2.7 million last weekend, despite playing in only 194 theaters. "Notes on a Scandal" made almost $2 million on 200 screens.

... EXCEPT WHEN THEY AREN'T. Neither "Miss Potter" nor "The Painted Veil" is doing all that well, while "Venus" desperately needs a Peter O'Toole Oscar nomination to find an audience.

Anyone see anything good this weekend?